Jonathan Fortun

Global macroeconomics

How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.

The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.

Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.

Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.

Research and public conversation

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503 results

April 30, 2026IIF

IIF Global Macro Views: Private Markets and the Pace of Adjustment

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

Private markets face tighter and less predictable financing conditions. Activity continues despite weak exits and slow changes in valuations, while venture capital and private credit become more concentrated and sensitive to costs and rates. Internal liquidity management delays market adjustment as additional financial claims accumulate on the same assets.

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April 23, 2026IIF

IIF Global Macro Views: The Shape of Things to Come

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun / Institute of International Finance

The duration of wartime disruption matters more than the initial oil-price jump, the authors argue. Their baseline is a fragile easing of pressure, with continued premiums on oil, liquefied natural gas and refined fuels. US resilience rests increasingly on consumption, asset prices and AI investment. Outcomes elsewhere depend on differing energy exposure, policy credibility and access to financing.

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April 16, 2026IIF

IIF Global Macro Views: The Iran Shock — From Prices to Constraints

Marcello Estevão · Jonathan Fortun · Leila Hamilton / Institute of International Finance

Disruption linked to Iran is spreading beyond crude prices into refined products, industrial inputs and logistics. The ceasefire shifts the near-term baseline toward gradual normalization, but emerging Asia remains especially exposed. A failed truce or slow reopening could amplify losses through production networks. Even a lasting ceasefire would leave an inflation shock and difficult policy choices rather than immediately restore pre-shock conditions.

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