How money, financial systems and policy shape economic activity, and how we measure the forces beneath the surface.
The same financial shock can produce very different economic outcomes. Understanding why means looking beneath aggregate indicators at the monetary arrangements, financial institutions and policy choices that connect markets with economic activity. That connection sits at the center of my work in global macroeconomics.
Measurement is part of the question. Research on economic slack in the eurozone examines how we assess an economy's room to grow. Work on derivatives, bank loan quality and exchange rate valuation explores the financial channels through which risks and incentives take shape. Analysis of Japan adds a perspective on monetary policy and its international setting.
Together, these strands ask how the architecture of finance influences economic adjustment. This page connects academic research, institutional analysis and public discussion so readers can follow an idea across different methods, markets and moments, and return to the original evidence.
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Fortun argues that recent reforms offer limited relief while financing constraints, weak investment and foreign-currency shortages continue to restrain growth.
View detailsFortun assesses how commodity support and carry returns cushioned Latin American investment flows during global risk aversion.
View detailsFortun assesses how commodity support and carry returns cushioned Latin American investment flows during global risk aversion.
View detailsRussia benefits from higher prices for oil supplied outside the Strait of Hormuz, with narrower discounts lifting export earnings despite broadly stable seaborne volumes. The fiscal windfall is constrained by Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure and domestic frictions. If wider escalation depresses global demand, the gains could prove short-lived.
Read the workHow long the conflict persists separates three oil-price scenarios for 2026, with average Brent prices around $85, $102 or $135. The analysis explains how declining inventory buffers can shift adjustment toward prices, with particular pressure in Asian physical markets. Longer disruption raises the risk of disproportionately large price increases, adding to inflation and complicating monetary policy through tighter financial conditions.
Read the workFortun distinguishes reduced immediate default risk from a lasting improvement in Bolivia's economic fundamentals.
View detailsFortun assesses how fuel-price policies and fiscal capacity shape the mixed regional effects of higher oil prices.
View detailsFortun assesses how fuel-price policies and fiscal capacity shape the mixed regional effects of higher oil prices.
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