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Using emerging-market data for 2008–2024, the paper studies how the composition of capital inflows relates to exports of ICT goods and services. Equity FDI is associated with stronger digital exports, particularly after 2017; portfolio flows show a weaker systematic relationship.
Read the workEmerging market portfolio inflows slowed to $21.7 billion in February after an exceptionally strong January. Debt attracted $14.3 billion and equities $7.4 billion. The March tracker interprets this moderation as a return toward normal conditions after unusually large early inflows, with investors becoming more selective rather than broadly retreating from emerging markets.
Read the workJapan faces an energy shock concentrated in its reliance on Middle Eastern supply routes. A 20 percent increase in Brent would raise its fuel bill by roughly half a percentage point of GDP and lift headline inflation by around 0.6 percentage points under baseline assumptions. Yen weakness and sharper gas prices could amplify the shock, narrowing room for fiscal support and monetary normalization.
Read the workQuiet capital flow data can coexist with mounting pressure for dollars. Where financial intermediation is fragmented, adjustment may appear in prices and liquidity buffers instead. Stablecoins add channels through which that pressure can be absorbed without replacing capital flows themselves. Diagnosing emerging market stress therefore requires examining payment infrastructure alongside conventional balance of payments measures.
Read the workJapan’s fiscal constraint becomes clearer when public assets and liabilities are considered together. Extensive public ownership of debt shifts attention from a sudden funding shock to valuation changes across the consolidated balance sheet. Slow refinancing provides a cushion, but that protection narrows if effective borrowing costs overtake growth or pension and foreign assets lose value.
Read the workA stable US unemployment rate masks a thinner margin for employment growth. Slower labor force expansion has reduced the hiring needed to keep unemployment steady, while broader measures reveal more slack. Jobs are increasingly concentrated in health and education, leaving goods production and tradable sectors with little momentum and weakening the foundations for sustained income gains.
Read the workTakaichi’s electoral landslide strengthens the ability to implement policy without removing Japan’s economic constraints. Stalled fiscal consolidation, weak domestic monetary transmission and trade frictions in autos limit the available options. Government bond yields and the yen increasingly reflect those fiscal and policy limits, making interest rate differentials alone an incomplete guide to market behavior.
Read the workJanuary brought the strongest start to a year in the tracker’s record, with emerging market portfolio inflows estimated at $98.8 billion in the February release. Both bonds and equities attracted capital across regions. New issuance, favorable dollar conditions and resilient local debt markets supported the acceleration despite geopolitical uncertainty.
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